SEMINAR OF THE THEMATIC PROJECT

Speaker:  Matteo  Barigozzi Department of Economics, Universitá di Bologna

Title: Tail-robust factor modelling of vector and tensor time series in high dimensions

Abstract:  We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce anomalous observations with nonnegligible probability. For this, we propose to combine a two-step procedure with data truncation, which is easy to implement and does not require iteratively searching for a numerical solution. Departing away from the light-tail assumptions often adopted in the time series factor modelling literature, we derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimators while only assuming the existence of the (2+ 2ϵ)-th moment for some ϵ ∈ (0, 1), fully characterising the effect of heavy tails on the rates of estimation as well as the level of truncation. Numerical experiments on simulated datasets demonstrate the good performance of the proposed estimator, which is further supported by applications to two macroeconomic datasets.